This post will be organized as follows:
- US Dollar Index
- AUDUSD
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- USDJPY
- USDCHF
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
Note these predictions were made on Saturday 6/22/2024 and Sunday 6/23/2024. The prediction machine learning algorithm used makes predictions on a continuous basis. Therefore, it would show the prediction as if the next trading day is 6/22/2024 and 6/23/2024. The reader should consider mentally transposing these predictions to the next trading day, i.e., Monday 6/24/2024 and 6/25/2024 (CEST + 3) time zone.
Let’s quickly examine the medium and high impact events for the week:
Let us start the prediction by examining the dollar index, DX or USXUSD, prediction for the week of 6/24/2024:
As it relates to the DX or USXUSD, we can see that we anticipate a continual decline in the currency price throughout the week.
Jumping into the predictions for the week, let’s start with AUDUSD:
We can anticipate a modest decline in the AUDUSD currency valuation on the first trading day of the week, followed by an increase in price until about NY session Wednesday. Then a retracement to the week’s mid-point can be anticipated for the rest of the week.
Next, let’s look at the predicted trend for EURUSD below:
EURUSD should have a small upward retracement for the first and the second trading day of the week. However, from Wednesday onwards, we can anticipate a decline in EURUSD. This anticipated trend is counter to our anticipated trend of DX, because we anticipate a decline in the DX value, which would imply an opposite move for EURUSD (upward trend). However, this seems to not be the case based on our prediction.
Next, we will look at GBPUSD:
We can anticipate a continual upward trend for GBPUSD. This seems more consistent with the downward trend that we anticipate from DX, therefore GBPUSD may be a better pair to express your dollar vs. rest-of-the world thesis, where you anticipate weakness in the dollar.
Our next pair is USDJPY. Let’s look at the anticipated trend for the week.
This trend seems to be consistent with the DX trend we saw at the start of this post. We can anticipate about 1 day lag in the USDJPY down-trend vs. DX. Also, note, JPY has been considerably weaker vs. rest of the currency pairs relative to USD, therefore, the trend may not be as long lasting.
Next, we will look at the USDCHF pair:
We can anticipate a strong downtrend at the start of the week for USDCHF. The trend should taper off around mid-week, for a slight retracement for the rest of the week.
Now, let’s look at NZDUSD:
We can anticipate a much stronger upward trend right at the start of the week. The trend should sustain and hold the highs considerably better than the sister-pair AUDUSD, which is anticipated to have a slightly deeper retracement near the later part of the week.
Lastly, let’s look at the USDCAD pair:
Following the same trend as the dollar, we should see a consistent decline. Note that USDCAD has a CPI report due on Tuesday, which could cause unforeseen market fluctuations. Otherwise, the down trend should continue.
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